As it seems we are heading to another lost season, the things that really irks me is ownership.
I get it - they love Eli and wanted to try to win one more time with him. Therefore Mara and company deserve the complete blame for where we are now.
They wanted to fire Coughlin? Fine. But Reese should have been out the door with him to start fresh. But no, we keep our GM and promote a coordinator from inside our broken organization to head coach.
Then when they finally do hire a new GM, it's another familiar face to Mr. Mara. One who has ties to Eli.
This isn't about the Giants not drafting a QB at #2. This is about an ownership group that seems to be too far involved with day to day football operations and they only want to surround themselves with people that are going to carry out their bidding.
I really really hope Gettleman proves me wrong and really shapes this roster next offseason (we all knew it wouldn't be solved in one year). But the fact is, this starts at the top and I really don't have any more trust in our ownership group to do the right thing and stay out of the football operations.
But surprisingly, they seem to have a brighter future than the Giants.
Years of crappy drafting have created a team with no depth and a poor OL.
But surprisingly, they seem to have a brighter future than the Giants.
I had several sentences comparing the wilpons to the Giants ownership, but I deleted them. Wasn't willing to go there just yet... but it's not trending in a good direction
But when Mara manipulated the Eli benching last December, used McAdoo as a scapegoat, and then inexplicably brought in Accorsi for the GM search, it was once again clearer than ever that Mara is failing greatly as an owner and we're closer to another Dark Age at Jints Central than a light at the end of this tunnel...
Years of crappy drafting have created a team with no depth and a poor OL.
You know the meaning of empty stars right?
I wanted Darnold or Rosen in the draft but I am starting to think that this is going to mimic the Rams approach. Get the star RB then draft a QB the following year. If Eli is let go the Giants will have plenty of room to add a top OT in the draft plus add a starting C or G.
Looking at the positives DG brought in Barkley, Hernandez, BJ Hill, Lorenzo Carter, Mario Edwards, and Alec Ogletree in one offseason.
Talk about reaching. Football teams make mistakes. Not every team can be the New York Yankees or New England Patriots.
Yes Reese should have gone with Coughlin and there is no doubt it was TCs time to go. When management forces you to change your DC 3 times and OC twice but the HC keeps his job that is loyalty to the HC.
Yes I'm fine with John Mara.
AnnapolisMike : 1:59 pm : link : reply
Eli has a completion percentage of 75%, a rating of 99 and is on pace to throw for 4,200 yards.
You left out the part where he throws for a total of 16 tds, the team finishes 4-12, and and finish 29th in scoring with 18.2 ppg....
but I really cannot get over how little work went into finding the GM and to a lesser extend the head coach. there were a number of assistant GMs and directors of pro personnel of other teams that were widely regarded as candidates ready to take the next step. and he did not interview a single one of them. instead, he conducted a brief "search", including two internal candidates - one of whom was widely seen as responsible for the current mess - and one broadcaster before settling on a guy he knows who used to work with the team.
this all ultimately falls on Mara as the head honcho. maybe if we haven't hit rock bottom yet, tisch can get mara to take a ceremonial role and find an independent outsider to take control of team management.
I think they're so sold on the Giants Way that they're reluctant to let their thinking take a backseat to someone new. They believe that the overall success since Young took the GM role means that their decision making, even if only strategic and not in the day to day, is beyond examination.
That's why they were OK with promoting McAdoo, with dismissing Coughlin but retaining Reese, with bringing back Gettleman. They were all moves that were in line with the traditional Giants Way of doing things. That's why they were OK with Accorsi leading the GM search.
They were in dire need of an outside set of eyes - but were not going to bring in someone from the outside who didn't see things through their lens, which completely defeated the purpose.
They're in trouble - and the fish stinks from the head down.
When in fact if Mara gave a mandate that Eli must stay, it is a much bigger issue
I think they're so sold on the Giants Way that they're reluctant to let their thinking take a backseat to someone new. They believe that the overall success since Young took the GM role means that their decision making, even if only strategic and not in the day to day, is beyond examination.
That's why they were OK with promoting McAdoo, with dismissing Coughlin but retaining Reese, with bringing back Gettleman. They were all moves that were in line with the traditional Giants Way of doing things. That's why they were OK with Accorsi leading the GM search.
They were in dire need of an outside set of eyes - but were not going to bring in someone from the outside who didn't see things through their lens, which completely defeated the purpose.
They're in trouble - and the fish stinks from the head down.
You know the Giants way has yielded 4 Superbowl titles. Not for lack of trying but the Giants problem has been the inability to put a pocket in front of their pocket QB for the past 6 years.
We haven't done anything to show we can compete in a fast modernizing NFL.
I started to root against the Giants winning last year because I wanted them to clean house. I might be there again already. This team isn't going to the playoffs and I fear the only way ownership might actually accept the reality that they need a new leader is one or two years more of horrible play.
Honestly I might be willing to stomach that if we can actually get a lick of innovation in the building.
Some making fun of Jerry Jones or Snyder. I bet they didn't live through the Wellington years. Well they're living through them now.
Welcome to 1970's NY Giants football. 4-17 in their last 21 games. A hand picked GM from the tiny circle of Mara trust that no other NFL team would even interview. Hiring a coordinator to be HC who looks out of his league, possibly 2 in a row now. Spending the #2 pick in the draft on the most fungible position in the NFL when their QB is 37 years old. The Solder contract. There's more but you get the point.
It's deja vu all over again.
As soon as people understand that, everything else becomes very easy to understand.
That's not the story as I saw it. It seems like they were entertaining the idea of blowing it up if that came from a new set of eyes in the "Giants family" and Gettleman sold them on the fact that he could. Also everything we heard about Gettleman was he was a no nonsense guy that isn't beholden to anyone. Mara is absolutely part of the problem but that doesn't give Gettleman a pass in any way shape or form.
The reality is this. You cannot realistically expect to judge the owners over a 3 or 4 year period. Mistakes have been made and this is an unforgiving league intolerant of mistakes. I don't think anyone can refute that but the last 32 years have yielded 4 superbowls (and a fifth appearance) whereby statistically they should have yielded approximately one.
That is because the Giants way works. We are a good football organisation that routinely makes solid football decisions and allows people to succeed or fail with class. Meanwhile the same horrific posters who wanted to get rid of Coughlin for McAdoo but now fete him at Jacksonville ponder should they allow their "loyalty" to continue for a 5th week of a new regime. These people would have traded Eli for Fitzpatrick three times by now and wonder why they're still trophyless.
It's just embarrassing to be a part of this fanbase at times.
Quote:
At some point, you have to consider that maybe you're part of the problem.
I think they're so sold on the Giants Way that they're reluctant to let their thinking take a backseat to someone new. They believe that the overall success since Young took the GM role means that their decision making, even if only strategic and not in the day to day, is beyond examination.
That's why they were OK with promoting McAdoo, with dismissing Coughlin but retaining Reese, with bringing back Gettleman. They were all moves that were in line with the traditional Giants Way of doing things. That's why they were OK with Accorsi leading the GM search.
They were in dire need of an outside set of eyes - but were not going to bring in someone from the outside who didn't see things through their lens, which completely defeated the purpose.
They're in trouble - and the fish stinks from the head down.
You know the Giants way has yielded 4 Superbowl titles. Not for lack of trying but the Giants problem has been the inability to put a pocket in front of their pocket QB for the past 6 years.
I know, and so are they. That's the past, though. They've had bad results for quite some time now.
And it's not as simple as 'we need an OL'. In 2015, they were scoring points in droves - but the D was a disaster. In 2016, the defense was much improved, and the offense vanished.
Something is broken. Now's not the time to hang on to the past, ownership should be thinking about whether or not it's time to make some changes to the Giants MO.
The reality is this. You cannot realistically expect to judge the owners over a 3 or 4 year period. Mistakes have been made and this is an unforgiving league intolerant of mistakes. I don't think anyone can refute that but the last 32 years have yielded 4 superbowls (and a fifth appearance) whereby statistically they should have yielded approximately one.
That is because the Giants way works. We are a good football organisation that routinely makes solid football decisions and allows people to succeed or fail with class. Meanwhile the same horrific posters who wanted to get rid of Coughlin for McAdoo but now fete him at Jacksonville ponder should they allow their "loyalty" to continue for a 5th week of a new regime. These people would have traded Eli for Fitzpatrick three times by now and wonder why they're still trophyless.
It's just embarrassing to be a part of this fanbase at times.
what some call classy, I would call befuddled, slow to react and overly risk averse.
Years of crappy drafting have created a team with no depth and a poor OL.
and we score no points and we don't win any games. Why don't you put that QB rating trophy on your desk. Maybe have Eli sign it for you too.
When you are done with that, go and read up on how the QB ratings are calculated and then ask yourself as to whether that stat should mean anything at all.
You know the Giants way has yielded 4 Superbowl titles. Not for lack of trying but the Giants problem has been the inability to put a pocket in front of their pocket QB for the past 6 years.
The Giants Way was really '84 through '90 when they grabbed 2 SBs. I was a teenager.
The organization was at it's peak. Discounting '87 because it was a strike year, and many games were played with replacement players, the team had a winning record every year. And they made the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years. The only year they didn't was '88 when they went a very respectable 10-6. Overall, they were 68-28.
I've dubbed it the Camelot Era for Giants football. They were a powerhouse and in the hunt year after year. An organization with a real identity.
Since then, the team has been a more disorganized than organized. Sure, they got to 3 SBs and won 2. But there hasn't been year over year consistency and each of those SB victories was really more surprise than expected. An argument can be made that this last ten years has been a decade wasted - either not going enough in to support Eli's prime or simply not moving on from Eli sooner.
So I'm not sure what's been so "steady" the last 25+ years.
Quote:
You know the Giants way has yielded 4 Superbowl titles. Not for lack of trying but the Giants problem has been the inability to put a pocket in front of their pocket QB for the past 6 years.
The Giants Way was really '84 through '90 when they grabbed 2 SBs. I was a teenager.
The organization was at it's peak. Discounting '87 because it was a strike year, and many games were played with replacement players, the team had a winning record every year. And they made the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years. The only year they didn't was '88 when they went a very respectable 10-6. Overall, they were 68-28.
I've dubbed it the Camelot Era for Giants football. They were a powerhouse and in the hunt year after year. An organization with a real identity.
Since then, the team has been a more disorganized than organized. Sure, they got to 3 SBs and won 2. But there hasn't been year over year consistency and each of those SB victories was really more surprise than expected. An argument can be made that this last ten years has been a decade wasted - either not going enough in to support Eli's prime or simply not moving on from Eli sooner.
So I'm not sure what's been so "steady" the last 25+ years.
2005-2011
Made the playoffs 5/7 years (missed the playoffs in 2010 at a "very respectable 10-6"), 69-43 record, 2 Championships.
Not consistent enough for you?
2005-2011
Made the playoffs 5/7 years (missed the playoffs in 2010 at a "very respectable 10-6"), 69-43 record, 2 Championships.
Not consistent enough for you?
No. They missed the playoffs two years in a row and in the two other years they got knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. And the one year they made the playoffs they were 8-8 and basically back-doored it.
That Parcells Era the team lost in the first round just once - the Flipper Game against the Rams. That team was a legit SB contender.
The reality is this. You cannot realistically expect to judge the owners over a 3 or 4 year period. Mistakes have been made and this is an unforgiving league intolerant of mistakes. I don't think anyone can refute that but the last 32 years have yielded 4 superbowls (and a fifth appearance) whereby statistically they should have yielded approximately one.
That is because the Giants way works. We are a good football organisation that routinely makes solid football decisions and allows people to succeed or fail with class. Meanwhile the same horrific posters who wanted to get rid of Coughlin for McAdoo but now fete him at Jacksonville ponder should they allow their "loyalty" to continue for a 5th week of a new regime. These people would have traded Eli for Fitzpatrick three times by now and wonder why they're still trophyless.
It's just embarrassing to be a part of this fanbase at times.
Some statistical analysis from one of the "dicks"
Pittsburgh, San Diego and the Giants all drafted franchise QBs in 2004. Our records since then (not including this year)
Steelers - 150-74
Chargers - 127-97
Giants - 116-108
Getting the franchise QB is the hardest part and we don't win either of our super bowls without some amazing play from Eli. Nobody is going to argue that the Chargers are some world beating organization yet since we all drafted franchise QBs we've had the worst regular season record. That to me says we have a talent evaluation problem, we aren't building a team to compete in the modern NFL and we are being left behind.
I've posted this before, but where are the Giants on things like this? No where.
Ever wonder why the Patriots have been so successful. See what is said about them in The Great Analytics Rankings
That's right the Patriots have been working on software systems for decades and we hired a senior citizen that doesn't believe in analytics to bring us back to winning football.
Yeah, it's always a good idea to count on businesses that refuse to modernize to beat the ones that do.
English Alaister is dead on here. These threads serve one purpose - to unite a bunch of people who subscribe to the theory that Giants ownership is equal parts puppet masters, yet too stupid to get out of their own way, yet somehow have managed to win a SB in every decade since the 70's ended.
Also conveniently left out is the one year where we had a hell of a chance to make some noise in the 80's and didn't even get into the playoffs - thanks to the Jets...
You probably don't realize this, but Gettleman completely revamped the analytical team in Carolina to modernize it. His protege Brandon Beane has taken those improvements and has implemented it in Buffalo.
It is like some of you guys just make up shit or fail to look at the past.
bw concocts the scenario that Gettleman is a yes man here to preserve Eli's legacy when the evidence shows that Gettleman was actually fired in Carolina for refusing to do so.
It is one of the more ponderous lines of thinking on BBI
Please no more mention of other classless owners as being worse than the Maras. No one I have read has posted that Mara is a classless person. My kids like to defend themselves and their actions by telling me how much worse some other kid is or would be in the same situation. No one is asking to bring in Snyder or Jerry Jones.
There weren't any. He was desperate to get back in the game and completely lucked out when Mara brought in Accorsi.
Since Parcells left the Giants have not won a single playoff game in 23 out of 27 seasons including this one. It's great for all of us Giants fans that they went to 3 Super Bowls and won 2. All the credit in the world to the owners players and coaches for those years even though 2000 had such a painful ending.
None of those years were really great regular seasons though. The Giants have won 12 games in a season only twice since 1991 and never more than 12. Aside from the 3 Super Bowl runs they've won 1 other playoff game period.
Don't get me wrong I know since 1991 the Eagles have won 1. The Redskins not since 92. Dallas not since 95. Winning 2 and going to 3 is not to be taken for granted. But there's nothing else.
There's no consistent winning or organizational model when it comes to the Giants. Just two glorious outlier seasons that will probably have to keep us happy for a long time.
Quote:
You probably don't realize this, but Gettleman completely revamped the analytical team in Carolina to modernize it. His protege Brandon Beane has taken those improvements and has implemented it in Buffalo.
It is like some of you guys just make up shit or fail to look at the past.
bw concocts the scenario that Gettleman is a yes man here to preserve Eli's legacy when the evidence shows that Gettleman was actually fired in Carolina for refusing to do so.
It is one of the more ponderous lines of thinking on BBI
Bully for him! Can you tell me who within the Giants organization is running our technology program? Do we have someone that is an expert in data creation and architecture like I linked from the Steelers?
I've been building predictive systems for financial institutions for 7 years now and I've seen inside many organizations. And a few observations:
1) Just because someone is committed to building a software program doesn't make it a good one
2) If you can lead a team that creates technology that differentiates your analytical results you wouldn't be let go and on the off chance you clashed with management and got fired you wouldn't be out of a job for very long
3) If your stuff works people know about it, no matter how quiet you try to keep it. Can you show me any articles touting the systems he set up in Carolina? I can easily find stuff on the Jags, Pats, Eagles.
4) When organizations want to lead a modernization effort, how many of them do you think turn to 67 year olds?
But if true , a mandate in regard to Eli, would bother me. But not to the extent that I ve stopped believing the Giants are in good hands.
Since Parcells left the Giants have not won a single playoff game in 23 out of 27 seasons including this one. It's great for all of us Giants fans that they went to 3 Super Bowls and won 2. All the credit in the world to the owners players and coaches for those years even though 2000 had such a painful ending.
None of those years were really great regular seasons though. The Giants have won 12 games in a season only twice since 1991 and never more than 12. Aside from the 3 Super Bowl runs they've won 1 other playoff game period.
Don't get me wrong I know since 1991 the Eagles have won 1. The Redskins not since 92. Dallas not since 95. Winning 2 and going to 3 is not to be taken for granted. But there's nothing else.
There's no consistent winning or organizational model when it comes to the Giants. Just two glorious outlier seasons that will probably have to keep us happy for a long time.
Our last 2 SB wins were not an outlier. It was Accorsi's vision to stockpile our team with pass rushing DE, who got hot in a sort of feeding frenzy at the right time.
Let's just say we were no longer ble to continue this model. Drafting Damontre Moore wasn't working, and of course we bring back Spags because nostalgia.
AnnapolisMike : 1:59 pm : link : reply
Eli has a completion percentage of 75%, a rating of 99 and is on pace to throw for 4,200 yards.
You left out the part where he throws for a total of 16 tds, the team finishes 4-12, and and finish 29th in scoring with 18.2 ppg....
And if the Giants indeed finish this year at 4-12, Eli's career record, after 15 full seasons, would be 115 wins and 115 losses.
Think about that the next time someone has the urge to be the first to post Eli surpassing so-and-so and moving into 7th all time in this stat, or 8th all time in that stat.
The standard of excellence for personal stats has evolved a lot as the NFL has evolved a lot, but for the paramount important measure -- the # of victories -- the standard has remained constant: a 12-4 record in 2018 is as great an accomplishment as it was in 1985.
Disclaimer: Yes I deeply appreciate Eli's two Super Bowl wins -- I was at Indy to witness the second one. And yes I am fully aware football is a team game, with one salient example being the Giants would not have won either one of Eli's two Super Bowls if their defense were substituted by any of the other 31 NFL defenses.
Carry on. We have a new tradition of excellence to look forward to due to failed leadership.
ever since then -- the player moves and drafts have mostly been terrible ..
worse .. when they let go Tom Coughlin -Giant could have kicked him upstairs ..Coughlin literally hung around the Giants facility for a year waiting for that job
but they could never offer it to him because Chris Mara already is in that position
so Coughlin goes to Jags and steers their franchise .to winning records and playoff appereancss
enough of rich white dudes who are born on third base and think they hit a triple
Nepotism sucks
Quote:
You bunch of dicks don't even have the first idea what loyalty entails. Instead we get threads like 'Do Gettleman and Schumer (presumably not Amy) deserve to be publicly lashed?' 'Is Vernon tougher than a 6 year old girl?' or this peach. It is no wonder posters like Fatman or B in ALB who has an idea what a pro locker room look like can't take any more of this nonsense. Don't even start me on bw and his jints central act which has routinely been a guide to a team about to go to a superbowl but is now scaling new levels of conjecture and hyperbole.
The reality is this. You cannot realistically expect to judge the owners over a 3 or 4 year period. Mistakes have been made and this is an unforgiving league intolerant of mistakes. I don't think anyone can refute that but the last 32 years have yielded 4 superbowls (and a fifth appearance) whereby statistically they should have yielded approximately one.
That is because the Giants way works. We are a good football organisation that routinely makes solid football decisions and allows people to succeed or fail with class. Meanwhile the same horrific posters who wanted to get rid of Coughlin for McAdoo but now fete him at Jacksonville ponder should they allow their "loyalty" to continue for a 5th week of a new regime. These people would have traded Eli for Fitzpatrick three times by now and wonder why they're still trophyless.
It's just embarrassing to be a part of this fanbase at times.
Some statistical analysis from one of the "dicks"
Pittsburgh, San Diego and the Giants all drafted franchise QBs in 2004. Our records since then (not including this year)
Steelers - 150-74
Chargers - 127-97
Giants - 116-108
Getting the franchise QB is the hardest part and we don't win either of our super bowls without some amazing play from Eli. Nobody is going to argue that the Chargers are some world beating organization yet since we all drafted franchise QBs we've had the worst regular season record. That to me says we have a talent evaluation problem, we aren't building a team to compete in the modern NFL and we are being left behind.
I've posted this before, but where are the Giants on things like this? No where.
Ever wonder why the Patriots have been so successful. See what is said about them in The Great Analytics Rankings
Quote:
Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
That's right the Patriots have been working on software systems for decades and we hired a senior citizen that doesn't believe in analytics to bring us back to winning football.
Yeah, it's always a good idea to count on businesses that refuse to modernize to beat the ones that do.
This is the kind of post that I refer to. Every. Single. NFL. Team. Uses. Analytics. The Giants do and heavily. I know this for a fact. They use predictive, they use modelling they track every snap of every player college and pro.
How far do you want to take it though? Clearly you're super committed to it as it's your profession and great for you but for me I think it is just a data point and it will always struggle to be as effective in football as in baseball for what I'm sure are very obvious reasons to you.
Still, you remain convinced the Giants refuse to modernise and the Jags, Eagles and others are mentioned. Do you think Coughlin suddenly became a numbers guy? No... he was for years at the giants. The Eagles are a smart org you say and the numbers told them... to hire Ben McAdoo. I note today Eli is top 4 in passes completed above expectation for example. To steal from the sage Bill2 you can torture the data into confessing any number of ways.
Ultimately numbers rarely tell you who is going to break out, who brings others together in a locker room and who brings something even greater than wins to a community. Football isn't wall street. It's a hugely complex interdependent operation more akin to predicting the weather than analysing trading patterns.
I think this roster is ill equipped for today's NFL. The organisation is not. Trust DG. He won't let you down and certainly not in the manner you suggest.
ever since then -- the player moves and drafts have mostly been terrible ..
worse .. when they let go Tom Coughlin -Giant could have kicked him upstairs ..Coughlin literally hung around the Giants facility for a year waiting for that job
but they could never offer it to him because Chris Mara already is in that position
so Coughlin goes to Jags and steers their franchise .to winning records and playoff appereancss
enough of rich white dudes who are born on third base and think they hit a triple
Nepotism sucks
It is nepotism of course but ask Bill Parcells (seeing as he seems to be good on this thread) what he thinks of Chris Mara. Whilst you're there kill two birds with one stone and ask him what he thinks of Odell too.
Spineless
I just hope the media take him to task often and directly
From 84-90 and 07-11 the Giants have been the envy of the league. Those are amazing stretches, but those eras are long gone and not indicative of future success.
The Giants have won playoff games in 3 out of the of the 40 other years in the Super Bowl era.
The team has sucked hard for 5 of the last 6 years. As do coaches, GMs, and players some times owners get worse or have shitty streaks in decision making. Mara is in one of those streaks.
It will be a long, long road if the Giants are slapping backs over what they accomplished with Coughlin.
Our last 2 SB wins were not an outlier. It was Accorsi's vision to stockpile our team with pass rushing DE, who got hot in a sort of feeding frenzy at the right time.
In 2011, Packers were 15-1 and the Saints and 9ers 13-3.
We were 9-7, winning the division and securing the last playoff spot on the last day. No one saw that playoff running coming. And if they said they did, they are lying their ass off.
If that wasn't an outlier, how come we were 9-7 again in 2012?
And didn't make the playoffs.
Quote:
In comment 14102160 English Alaister said:
Quote:
You bunch of dicks don't even have the first idea what loyalty entails. Instead we get threads like 'Do Gettleman and Schumer (presumably not Amy) deserve to be publicly lashed?' 'Is Vernon tougher than a 6 year old girl?' or this peach. It is no wonder posters like Fatman or B in ALB who has an idea what a pro locker room look like can't take any more of this nonsense. Don't even start me on bw and his jints central act which has routinely been a guide to a team about to go to a superbowl but is now scaling new levels of conjecture and hyperbole.
The reality is this. You cannot realistically expect to judge the owners over a 3 or 4 year period. Mistakes have been made and this is an unforgiving league intolerant of mistakes. I don't think anyone can refute that but the last 32 years have yielded 4 superbowls (and a fifth appearance) whereby statistically they should have yielded approximately one.
That is because the Giants way works. We are a good football organisation that routinely makes solid football decisions and allows people to succeed or fail with class. Meanwhile the same horrific posters who wanted to get rid of Coughlin for McAdoo but now fete him at Jacksonville ponder should they allow their "loyalty" to continue for a 5th week of a new regime. These people would have traded Eli for Fitzpatrick three times by now and wonder why they're still trophyless.
It's just embarrassing to be a part of this fanbase at times.
Some statistical analysis from one of the "dicks"
Pittsburgh, San Diego and the Giants all drafted franchise QBs in 2004. Our records since then (not including this year)
Steelers - 150-74
Chargers - 127-97
Giants - 116-108
Getting the franchise QB is the hardest part and we don't win either of our super bowls without some amazing play from Eli. Nobody is going to argue that the Chargers are some world beating organization yet since we all drafted franchise QBs we've had the worst regular season record. That to me says we have a talent evaluation problem, we aren't building a team to compete in the modern NFL and we are being left behind.
I've posted this before, but where are the Giants on things like this? No where.
Ever wonder why the Patriots have been so successful. See what is said about them in The Great Analytics Rankings
Quote:
Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
That's right the Patriots have been working on software systems for decades and we hired a senior citizen that doesn't believe in analytics to bring us back to winning football.
Yeah, it's always a good idea to count on businesses that refuse to modernize to beat the ones that do.
This is the kind of post that I refer to. Every. Single. NFL. Team. Uses. Analytics. The Giants do and heavily. I know this for a fact. They use predictive, they use modelling they track every snap of every player college and pro.
How far do you want to take it though? Clearly you're super committed to it as it's your profession and great for you but for me I think it is just a data point and it will always struggle to be as effective in football as in baseball for what I'm sure are very obvious reasons to you.
Still, you remain convinced the Giants refuse to modernise and the Jags, Eagles and others are mentioned. Do you think Coughlin suddenly became a numbers guy? No... he was for years at the giants. The Eagles are a smart org you say and the numbers told them... to hire Ben McAdoo. I note today Eli is top 4 in passes completed above expectation for example. To steal from the sage Bill2 you can torture the data into confessing any number of ways.
Ultimately numbers rarely tell you who is going to break out, who brings others together in a locker room and who brings something even greater than wins to a community. Football isn't wall street. It's a hugely complex interdependent operation more akin to predicting the weather than analysing trading patterns.
I think this roster is ill equipped for today's NFL. The organisation is not. Trust DG. He won't let you down and certainly not in the manner you suggest.
Of course every team uses analytics. That isn't the point I was making in any way shape or form.
I originally brought up the Patriots because they clearly have been developing their systems for a while and they make unconventional moves like the trade of Richard Seymour there is no doubt that it was supported by some kind of advanced expected value predictive analysis. Combining no doubt information from at least a few predictive systems including draft pick value, performance, injury and ROI on salary. There are a difference between good systems and bad systems and there is no indication that the Giants or Gettleman know how to set up good systems that help you succeed.
Computer systems aren't the end all be all but they help you minimize mistakes, exploit weaknesses and generally use probabilities to help make the right calls. There isn't much evidence saying we do any of these things well.
And I don't "seem to think" anything. I stay as read up as I can on this sort of thing and it is easy to find examples of analytics systems helping the teams I named.
I googled the following teams followed by "analytics software" the Jags, Pats and Eagles all have glowing reviews of what they are doing with analytics. The Giants? The third organic result is an article on the Eagles. When you do it for the Carolina Panthers you see more articles on what the Florida Panthers are doing.
Here is an article on how the Pats and Eagles used analytics to reach the Super Bowl. You and whoever your Giants contacts are can continue to downplay the importance but anyone that does is making a mistake.
You think we should trust the Giants to implement a program that people respect? You think we should trust Gettleman to do this? On what basis? You are missing my point so I will make it clear: if you build powerful goal state oriented systems they help smart humans make better decisions. Just because you have a few people that can throw some neural networks into an interface doesn't mean you've built a good system. There is a massive difference between great analysis pipelines and someone throwing a bunch of numbers at an algorithm and judging the results.
I have every right to be skeptical, every piece of research I've done has shown the Giants are not leaders in the areas of analytics and our results on the field have not been good and increasingly so recently. That's my evidence. Show me yours.
Oh yeah, one more thing, I've been harping on it on the other threads but Shurmur not calling time outs before the half in the last game, that's not even complex game theory that is easy math, an easy expected value calculation. Doesn't seem like we have software to even get that right. Everyone lauds Pederson for going for it but he isn't putting his finger to the wind he's using applied game theory.
The world is changing and everyone is using analytics, you are right about that, thanks for all your periods of emphasis. Some know how to derive value from it and others do not. What are your strategies for solving the infinite dimensionality problem while engineering features for time series data? How about model / ensemble verification to determine which systems to go live with before enhancing with online learning? How about creating new data out of previously qualitative systems and testing its efficacy before rolling out larger programs?
You are talking to me like because I don't know the inner workings of the Giants systems I am ill informed but these are just a few of the things you can do to have functional systems that when you feed in data perform better and better. Even if we are starting today with the best team in the world we are already behind. I hope i'm reading articles in a year about the Giants leading the way on the next wave of analytics but right now I am relying on a simple fact. There is evidence that analytics are WORKING for other teams and that evidence is MISSING in relation to the Giants. Why don't you tell the people that told you about the Giants predictive systems to do their F#$#%%@ jobs better.
I'm pissed off like everyone else here, but it has been 4 games into the new regime. They nailed the draft. The FA signings look...eh. So far, a mixed bag. How can anyone judge the new regime so quickly?
In the next 2 years, i have to imagine we go after a quarterback in the draft. The success of that QB will define Gettleman's tenure. People love to compare Saquon Barkley to Sam Darnold - the real comparison will be Darnold against whomever we pick to succeed Eli. If Darnold lasts.
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In comment 14102263 NoGainDayne said:
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In comment 14102160 English Alaister said:
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You bunch of dicks don't even have the first idea what loyalty entails. Instead we get threads like 'Do Gettleman and Schumer (presumably not Amy) deserve to be publicly lashed?' 'Is Vernon tougher than a 6 year old girl?' or this peach. It is no wonder posters like Fatman or B in ALB who has an idea what a pro locker room look like can't take any more of this nonsense. Don't even start me on bw and his jints central act which has routinely been a guide to a team about to go to a superbowl but is now scaling new levels of conjecture and hyperbole.
The reality is this. You cannot realistically expect to judge the owners over a 3 or 4 year period. Mistakes have been made and this is an unforgiving league intolerant of mistakes. I don't think anyone can refute that but the last 32 years have yielded 4 superbowls (and a fifth appearance) whereby statistically they should have yielded approximately one.
That is because the Giants way works. We are a good football organisation that routinely makes solid football decisions and allows people to succeed or fail with class. Meanwhile the same horrific posters who wanted to get rid of Coughlin for McAdoo but now fete him at Jacksonville ponder should they allow their "loyalty" to continue for a 5th week of a new regime. These people would have traded Eli for Fitzpatrick three times by now and wonder why they're still trophyless.
It's just embarrassing to be a part of this fanbase at times.
Some statistical analysis from one of the "dicks"
Pittsburgh, San Diego and the Giants all drafted franchise QBs in 2004. Our records since then (not including this year)
Steelers - 150-74
Chargers - 127-97
Giants - 116-108
Getting the franchise QB is the hardest part and we don't win either of our super bowls without some amazing play from Eli. Nobody is going to argue that the Chargers are some world beating organization yet since we all drafted franchise QBs we've had the worst regular season record. That to me says we have a talent evaluation problem, we aren't building a team to compete in the modern NFL and we are being left behind.
I've posted this before, but where are the Giants on things like this? No where.
Ever wonder why the Patriots have been so successful. See what is said about them in The Great Analytics Rankings
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Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
That's right the Patriots have been working on software systems for decades and we hired a senior citizen that doesn't believe in analytics to bring us back to winning football.
Yeah, it's always a good idea to count on businesses that refuse to modernize to beat the ones that do.
This is the kind of post that I refer to. Every. Single. NFL. Team. Uses. Analytics. The Giants do and heavily. I know this for a fact. They use predictive, they use modelling they track every snap of every player college and pro.
How far do you want to take it though? Clearly you're super committed to it as it's your profession and great for you but for me I think it is just a data point and it will always struggle to be as effective in football as in baseball for what I'm sure are very obvious reasons to you.
Still, you remain convinced the Giants refuse to modernise and the Jags, Eagles and others are mentioned. Do you think Coughlin suddenly became a numbers guy? No... he was for years at the giants. The Eagles are a smart org you say and the numbers told them... to hire Ben McAdoo. I note today Eli is top 4 in passes completed above expectation for example. To steal from the sage Bill2 you can torture the data into confessing any number of ways.
Ultimately numbers rarely tell you who is going to break out, who brings others together in a locker room and who brings something even greater than wins to a community. Football isn't wall street. It's a hugely complex interdependent operation more akin to predicting the weather than analysing trading patterns.
I think this roster is ill equipped for today's NFL. The organisation is not. Trust DG. He won't let you down and certainly not in the manner you suggest.
Of course every team uses analytics. That isn't the point I was making in any way shape or form.
I originally brought up the Patriots because they clearly have been developing their systems for a while and they make unconventional moves like the trade of Richard Seymour there is no doubt that it was supported by some kind of advanced expected value predictive analysis. Combining no doubt information from at least a few predictive systems including draft pick value, performance, injury and ROI on salary. There are a difference between good systems and bad systems and there is no indication that the Giants or Gettleman know how to set up good systems that help you succeed.
Computer systems aren't the end all be all but they help you minimize mistakes, exploit weaknesses and generally use probabilities to help make the right calls. There isn't much evidence saying we do any of these things well.
And I don't "seem to think" anything. I stay as read up as I can on this sort of thing and it is easy to find examples of analytics systems helping the teams I named.
I googled the following teams followed by "analytics software" the Jags, Pats and Eagles all have glowing reviews of what they are doing with analytics. The Giants? The third organic result is an article on the Eagles. When you do it for the Carolina Panthers you see more articles on what the Florida Panthers are doing.
Here is an article on how the Pats and Eagles used analytics to reach the Super Bowl. You and whoever your Giants contacts are can continue to downplay the importance but anyone that does is making a mistake.
You think we should trust the Giants to implement a program that people respect? You think we should trust Gettleman to do this? On what basis? You are missing my point so I will make it clear: if you build powerful goal state oriented systems they help smart humans make better decisions. Just because you have a few people that can throw some neural networks into an interface doesn't mean you've built a good system. There is a massive difference between great analysis pipelines and someone throwing a bunch of numbers at an algorithm and judging the results.
I have every right to be skeptical, every piece of research I've done has shown the Giants are not leaders in the areas of analytics and our results on the field have not been good and increasingly so recently. That's my evidence. Show me yours.
Oh yeah, one more thing, I've been harping on it on the other threads but Shurmur not calling time outs before the half in the last game, that's not even complex game theory that is easy math, an easy expected value calculation. Doesn't seem like we have software to even get that right. Everyone lauds Pederson for going for it but he isn't putting his finger to the wind he's using applied game theory.
The world is changing and everyone is using analytics, you are right about that, thanks for all your periods of emphasis. Some know how to derive value from it and others do not. What are your strategies for solving the infinite dimensionality problem while engineering features for time series data? How about model / ensemble verification to determine which systems to go live with before enhancing with online learning? How about creating new data out of previously qualitative systems and testing its efficacy before rolling out larger programs?
You are talking to me like because I don't know the inner workings of the Giants systems I am ill informed but these are just a few of the things you can do to have functional systems that when you feed in data perform better and better. Even if we are starting today with the best team in the world we are already behind. I hope i'm reading articles in a year about the Giants leading the way on the next wave of analytics but right now I am relying on a simple fact. There is evidence that analytics are WORKING for other teams and that evidence is MISSING in relation to the Giants. Why don't you tell the people that told you about the Giants predictive systems to do their F#$#%%@ jobs better.
What trade has worked out for the Patriots lately?
you wanna know why they make the super bowl all the time? They have the best coach ever and one the best quarterbacks ever, who takes a decent pay cut to help fill the roster out (his wife's earnings don't hurt either).
You googled analytic software on the Giants and because no "glowing reviews" popped up you ragged on them. C'mon.
"I don't know the inner workings of the Giants systems"
Exactly. None of us do. Lets not pretend we do.
For all you know, they traded Seymour because he pissed off Belicheck.
Did analytics tell them to bench Malcolm Butler, sign Bear Pascoe and Jake Ballard, get rid of Brandon Cooks, sign Phillip Dorsett and sign Josh Gordon??
My point from above and it still remains is that posters have taken an isolated comment about his brushing off analytics in response to a crap question and used it to show he had disdain for numbers, is looking at tape from 1950 and is more concerned about retirement home choices than signing people to contracts.
It is disingenuous, and many of the posters spouting off that thinking believe he's here just to carry on the Manning legacy. That he was directed as a condition of his job to keep Eli. and they don't just allude to it - they state it as fact.
For all you know, they traded Seymour because he pissed off Belicheck.
Did analytics tell them to bench Malcolm Butler, sign Bear Pascoe and Jake Ballard, get rid of Brandon Cooks, sign Phillip Dorsett and sign Josh Gordon??
My point from above and it still remains is that posters have taken an isolated comment about his brushing off analytics in response to a crap question and used it to show he had disdain for numbers, is looking at tape from 1950 and is more concerned about retirement home choices than signing people to contracts.
It is disingenuous, and many of the posters spouting off that thinking believe he's here just to carry on the Manning legacy. That he was directed as a condition of his job to keep Eli. and they don't just allude to it - they state it as fact.
FMiC: Thank you for being able to see through and cut through asshole fans total BS opinions. Once DG decided not to draft a QB @2 I should have expected the shit-for-brains agenda driven crew to come out swinging. Keep up the good work.
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I originally brought up the Patriots because they clearly have been developing their systems for a while and they make unconventional moves like the trade of Richard Seymour there is no doubt that it was supported by some kind of advanced expected value predictive analysis.
For all you know, they traded Seymour because he pissed off Belicheck.
Did analytics tell them to bench Malcolm Butler, sign Bear Pascoe and Jake Ballard, get rid of Brandon Cooks, sign Phillip Dorsett and sign Josh Gordon??
My point from above and it still remains is that posters have taken an isolated comment about his brushing off analytics in response to a crap question and used it to show he had disdain for numbers, is looking at tape from 1950 and is more concerned about retirement home choices than signing people to contracts.
It is disingenuous, and many of the posters spouting off that thinking believe he's here just to carry on the Manning legacy. That he was directed as a condition of his job to keep Eli. and they don't just allude to it - they state it as fact.
I’m not doing that I’m saying there is no evidence that there are analytics systems that are sooken about positively and the panthers and Giants aren’t among them. Also, the game theory point shouldn’t be lost Peterson seems to have real time probabilities going into his decision making and we can’t even get something right like calling time outs at the end of the half. I’m not saying analytics means you win every time or are right but playing the probabilities adds up in larger time frames. The NFL is complicated, know this it isn’t baseball. Not easy to build these systems. But it is possible to add value with them and there just isn’t any wvedence that the Giants or Gettleman have any aptitude in this area. Anyone can hire a few engineers, are they the right ones? Are you teaching them about the problem and organizing the rights outcome analysis? Do I know that the Patriots traded Seymour because of analytics, no. I do know that they seem to be a team that the numbers favor, they make moves that other teams don’t. And that Ernie Adams has been integral to their process for years integrating economic and football analysis.
I am being clear for the basis of my reasoning. So please make yours clearer.
Is it that you don’t think advanced analytics programs are valuable?
Is it that you think Gettleman and the Giants are well positioned to make a system that is as good or better than the leaders? Why? What are their qualifications or the qualifications of the people they have working for them?
Refute my evidence or present your own.
I have shared articles that it works for teams as is important to their process and that while there is evidence of these successful systems with these teams there aren’t for the Panthers and Giants. Where is all the talk of the system that Gettleman set up in Carolina?
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I originally brought up the Patriots because they clearly have been developing their systems for a while and they make unconventional moves like the trade of Richard Seymour there is no doubt that it was supported by some kind of advanced expected value predictive analysis.
For all you know, they traded Seymour because he pissed off Belicheck.
Did analytics tell them to bench Malcolm Butler, sign Bear Pascoe and Jake Ballard, get rid of Brandon Cooks, sign Phillip Dorsett and sign Josh Gordon??
My point from above and it still remains is that posters have taken an isolated comment about his brushing off analytics in response to a crap question and used it to show he had disdain for numbers, is looking at tape from 1950 and is more concerned about retirement home choices than signing people to contracts.
It is disingenuous, and many of the posters spouting off that thinking believe he's here just to carry on the Manning legacy. That he was directed as a condition of his job to keep Eli. and they don't just allude to it - they state it as fact.
That wasn't a crap question - but it was a shit answer.
I wasn't able to find much linking Gettleman to analytics in Carolina. I was able to find the new owner telling the team they need to start using analytics more:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/09/14/new-panthers-owner-david-tepper-encouraging-coaches-to-embrace-analytics/
I have no doubt the Giants have access to a shit ton of data. There are firms all over the place willing to sell it, and I'm sure that all the teams buy it.
The question is - are they using it, and using it effectively? When you look at the product on the field, it's hard to believe they are.
Is it that you don’t think advanced analytics programs are valuable?
Is it that you think Gettleman and the Giants are well positioned to make a system that is as good or better than the leaders? Why? What are their qualifications or the qualifications of the people they have working for them?
My point has been that the talk of Gettleman dismissing analytics is complete horseshit and based off of a dismissive response he gave to a bullshit question.
My point is that he was a driver in the Panthers upgrading their team that conducts analytics and that his protege Brandon Beane has already made changes in Buffalo.
I don't know if they have systems that are as good or better than the leaders - I'm guessing there needs to be more articles or the assumption is those guys are using digits and abaci to calculate shit.
You've produced articles about the Eagles, Patriots and Jags (who by the way have been a suck ass team for over a decade until last year) and that's proof the giants and Panthers are in analytical Dark Ages?
My position is clear and simple.
Gettleman doesn't ignore analytics
The rest of this is just piling on based off of one interview instead of his body of work.
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I am being clear for the basis of my reasoning. So please make yours clearer.
Is it that you don’t think advanced analytics programs are valuable?
Is it that you think Gettleman and the Giants are well positioned to make a system that is as good or better than the leaders? Why? What are their qualifications or the qualifications of the people they have working for them?
My point has been that the talk of Gettleman dismissing analytics is complete horseshit and based off of a dismissive response he gave to a bullshit question.
My point is that he was a driver in the Panthers upgrading their team that conducts analytics and that his protege Brandon Beane has already made changes in Buffalo.
I don't know if they have systems that are as good or better than the leaders - I'm guessing there needs to be more articles or the assumption is those guys are using digits and abaci to calculate shit.
You've produced articles about the Eagles, Patriots and Jags (who by the way have been a suck ass team for over a decade until last year) and that's proof the giants and Panthers are in analytical Dark Ages?
My position is clear and simple.
Gettleman doesn't ignore analytics
The rest of this is just piling on based off of one interview instead of his body of work.
The Jags have been bad but Tony Khan was tasked with an overhaul of their analytics in 2012 and it appears to be paying dividends.
You need the right people and a commitment to advanced analytics to have successful programs and there is no evidence that you've presented that the Giants have either. Maybe Gettleman knows he needs software but does he know anything about engineering? Hiring the right engineering leaders?
I need to point out once more that when you have one team like the Eagles seemingly benefiting off live probabilistic simulations for when to go for it on 4th down in seemingly unconventional situations. And another team like the Giants that can't seem to call timeouts correctly in obvious situations the latter team seemingly is voluntarily putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage.
You can tell me all you want about I don't know this and I don't know that. But I will tell you that ANY mathematical model will tell you to take timeouts with 1:44 left in a half and the opposing team having 1st and Goal at the 8.
And you don't say after the game "maybe in hindsight" which is what Shurmur said. There is no maybe, taking at least one of those timeouts raises your win probability. If we can't get basic math like that right why should we as fans have any faith that we can get more complicated things like player evaluation and the right way to leverage those numbers to make better decisions right?
Yeah it's complicated, I know. Which is why myself and any fan should want people doing it that can set up basic game theory systems.
My problem with your argument is this.
1. The fact the Giants are incredibly secretive about their operation does not mean they don't have one or it is inferior to the Eagles and let's hold off on declaring the Eagles the second coming. The sample size is small and let's remember they loved McAdoo too...
2. I agree we should have called timeout under normal circumstances and I think I would have as well but with Beckham on an IV chances weren't great. That's the thing...computers help you only so much although I suspect the outcome whether to go for it minus Beckham is close.
3. Coaches have to make the calls they are happy with. Pederson has openly said the Philly miracle was a gut call seconds before. You can hold it up as an example of great analytics but you could equally hold it up as just a great coaching call.
4. I spend a lot of time in Houston. Daryl Morey is the ultimate maths guy and I've sat through some effing awful Rockets games the last 10 years where it looks like the team has never met. OK, we're good this year but by and large maths is only ever a part of the solution and that is in seasons with much larger sample sizes.
I think we can all agree on this. We all want the team to have elite departments on all fronts. Quality control, scouting, coaching and analytics can help with that, help you keep an open mind, provide quality inputs. Having a world class analytics operation should be the aspiration. I believe it is in the Giants org. I just feel at the end of the day they don't easily evaluate chemistry, fight and everything that goes into football. We should try but we should not rely and at the end of the day I'm personally very comfortable with the current GM making the right calls.
What a loser, defeatist attitude. And if that's what went into the decision making, well - that's why the Giants look like hot garbage out there.
You spend a #2 overall on a RB you're claiming is a generational talent, a threat to break one at any time - and you pass up an opportunity to have the ball with a minute left because Beckham isn't on the field?
Throw the fucking white flag and go home at the half if that's the case, spare everyone in the crowd the time in traffic.
You can tell me all you want about I don't know this and I don't know that. But I will tell you that ANY mathematical model will tell you to take timeouts with 1:44 left in a half and the opposing team having 1st and Goal at the 8.
It is like you think the coach has a computer next to him spitting out what he needs to do. If Shurmur continues to make poor decisions, especially ones that limit the number of possessions you get - which is bad under any interpretation of analytics, it will be an issue.
And let's cool it with the idea that the Eagles, Jags or Pats are making flawless game theory decisions. Prior to last season, Pederson was taking a lot of flack about his questionable decisions, and right now they are sitting at 2-2, in part because of a couple iffy decisions in the Tennessee game.
I think BB being a football man who operates at the most granular level, who is both Head Coach and General Manager, and is working for an owner that more often than not defers to his judgement, makes him an exceptional case not likely to be repeated.
Giants:
Panthers:
Thought it was interesting in the context of the NGD/FMiC discussion.
SI - ( New Window )
After Gettleman was fired and Hurney came back into the fold, one analyst went to Buffalo with Brandon Beane and they stopped using the development team.
They basically undid the work Gettleman had put in place.
I knew the Giants used analytics, but I don't know DG's influence there. Beane has had a very big influence in Buffalo, and has their new relatively inexperienced ownership team on board.
Thanks for the info on the Giants.
Richardson basically left the team without ownership for 9 months (a former secretary was put as COO as a fuck you move). And his several last years of ownership were marked with erratic behavior, illogical firings, and inappropriate outbursts.
I’m not suggesting they are the second coming, what I am suggesting is that there is ample evidence that they are feeding their coach advanced game theory concepts by which he makes decisions and the Giants don’t seem to have a grasp on simple ones. This is extremely problematic. I’ll give you another example that clearly wasn’t rooted in game theory. In the Dallas game when they failed to go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 48 with 10:08 in the 1st down 7-0 and then went for it on 4th and 1 from their own 35 down 10-0. Again, I don’t have the models in front of me, but I know how this math works well enough to say with extreme confidence that the net win probability risk of the first scenario was lower than the second. This again demonstrates a lack of understanding or usage of applied mathematics. Either one is bad. There is a lot of whataboutism in the world today. No one is infallible. Math isn’t the answer to everything by any means but playing the odds helps you win. And I’m just throwing this out there, pointing out that the MacAdoo mistake could have been avoided using analytics shows a very poor understanding of the current strengths of technology so you are unlikely to be the best person to evaluate the potential abilities or efficacy of it.
One point on secrecy. Secrecy is your enemy currently, it wasn’t always this way but power is shifting from business people to engineers. It’s why there are certain floors at Goldman where there isn’t a dress code it’s why most tech companies have great office environments and no limits on vacation days or working from home. Engineers care about quality of life, they like to collaborate with their peers, it helps them find the best open source tools, it helps them think through their own problem sets. It does not mean they share all their secrets. See this article on Sean Harrington of the Patriots and Automation. He advanced his program when he met “AutoScout” at the Sloan conference. From that same article you can see he presented at Tufts. You need to be open to recruit the best new talent, no matter how smart your team is there are new things constantly coming to the forefront and you need fresh blood and the new ideas that come with it. If you are secretive, people will not want to share with you, it makes it harder to recruit and if you aren’t sharing and there is no buzz around what you are doing it almost always means you are behind not ahead. There is a reason that Google let’s us use TensorFlow it’s because they have way better stuff, but they also want to see how people use it to see if they can make theirs better. Sharing is the behavior of people that know they are ahead and want to stay ahead.
4. I spend a lot of time in Houston. Daryl Morey is the ultimate maths guy and I've sat through some effing awful Rockets games the last 10 years where it looks like the team has never met. OK, we're good this year but by and large maths is only ever a part of the solution and that is in seasons with much larger sample sizes.
People tend to view things in very black and white ways but when you deal in probabilities which at this point behooves you for certain data driven industries you see the grey. This idea that you either must be completely run by computers or the problem is intractable for a computer to lend valuable insights different from human cognition is asinine.
This is a great article on Chess Centaurs which has colored my learning on human and machine interaction. It highlights a few things, the first is that the most accomplished chess players are now human machine symbiotic pairs and secondly that online learning is a vital part of the process (online learning is adding to your training data from usage data pitting your advanced system against real competition / good testing frameworks / benchmarks / other prediction tools)
This is where the SI article that Brett shared comes in. I read it at the time and I’m sorry but neither of these guys strike me as people who have set up online learning systems, especially probabilistically which is essential or have implemented an evolving or convolutional neural net. Which is just square one of these architectures, the real difficulty is automating them and integrating them in decision making processes. And before you say they can just hire engineers! No, that doesn’t prove to be effective. In fact, it wasn’t until people that understood the problem set, technology stacks, and mathematics that these AI systems (used broadly because it is an overused buzz word) started to become useful. For years there were quants and traders on Wall St. when that line was drawn the systems and their usage weren’t as effective, now the line is blurred or even non-existent and the benefits are tangible and are changing the industry. ”Traders who code” once mythical creatures now number 200 at Goldman.
To start on Gettleman himself, I’m sorry but he seems like he isn’t a nice person to work for. You could say he’s smart and often right and in the old ways of business this was fine but there are too many articles and even a thread on BBI showing that he doesn’t seem to treat people the way talented engineers want to be treated and that is problematic. More on this later. When as of a year ago the “up and coming” Giants analytics department consists of a guy that has been with the Giants and Knicks for 30+ years and there are no signs of any kind of analytical success (including some alarming omissions of the understanding of basic math within games) and the rising star is someone that looks like they’ve built cost benefit analysis models in excel and stata and nothing beyond that, that is really not what you want to see. He doesn’t even mention any knowledge of databases. He’s endorsed on linkedin for “data analytics” which was a great skill 15 years ago. I know a lot of startups and established firms hiring standards for analytics positions and the Giants rising star does not have the background to get an interview at those places. And it doesn’t mean that these people are being hired to code, it is important that you at least know enough about coding through hands on experience that you can manage coders effectively and QC your systems from your leadership role. Just to take stock quickly as a point of comparison, the Patriots are stealing people from Google who create their own autoencoding algorithms which make unique data sets for them and our “rising star” is a non-technical hire from a consulting firm who has been trained in the ancient art of data analysis. That’s why I asked if Gettleman brought in any new blood because the old blood and on the filed results are underwhelming for the difficult task at hand, which leads me to…
I can’t believe people consistently make the argument that Football is some analytical mountain that can’t be climbed. That is hubris as someone said earlier in this thread and nothing else. How there is chemistry involved “fight”? We don’t know what their assignments are? Why exactly is that too difficult to compute? We are now predicting the trajectory of organizations with hundreds and thousands of people, with products that are many times a secret, and no, we do not know what the assignments of any of these people are either. Not only are we predicting this, but we are predicting how millions of people will react to these movements. But somehow football where we now have data on how these people move on the football field and can create physics equations out of old film, Football is somehow beyond the reach computers to add significant value today. We found the Higgs-Boson particle! We are building Rockets that can take of and land using AI!
I think Shurmur should have taken a timeout, and it was irresponsible for him not to. Really calls into question his game management skills. But taking that mistake and acting as if it is tied back to analytics is a stretch
If you read the article I shared earlier it does look like Doug Pederson has that computer and even better than a computer, he is talking to people that help him interpret what the computer is saying live.
We all walk around with computers in our hands and they help us in a variety of ways. I don’t know why it isn't viewed as universally helpful to have something that is giving you information on the potential outcomes of complex non-linear equations that you can choose to use or not. Yes, you can say that people can become overly reliant on them or addicted and that is annoying but that is on the user not the technology. In that Centaur article it explains the pitfalls of over reliance which I wholeheartedly agree with. But it also explains the dangers of having too much confidence in your ability to out think machines categorically, which Gettleman has exhibited characteristics of. And no, having an analytics program and software developers working for you does not mean you don't consider yourself smarter than all of them.
You say I’m making a stretch so before I get a little more technical let me draw the clear line. Pederson has people in his ear sharing data on complex non-linear equations backed by millions of calculations and simulations in real time and the Giants decisions don’t reflect an understanding of much more simple Expected Points equations that don’t even have to be calculated in real time to be useful. Pro football reference has had a calculation for this since 2012.
Using a timeout or not is a much simpler calculation because there isn’t a downside to using it in the way that missing on a 4th down try does. Even if we don’t have the capabilities to do this ourselves EDJSports does and the Eagles subscribe even though they have their own in-house system. Which is smart as the quality of your online learning goes up the more inputs it has to choose from to validate “it’s thinking” and if it was correct. This is another big concern; these tools are out there and available and if they are available in your profession you really shouldn’t be making mistakes that can be solved by their usage. How pissed off would you be if you got into an Uber and looked at Waze and you saw your driver wasn’t using the guidance system and ended up taking longer than the estimate? I’d be pissed. This is the same thing except that driver is a business taking in billions of dollars and that me and my family have personally given probably about half a real data scientists salary in our lifetimes and thousands of hours of our time not $10 and 19 minutes. It’s irresponsible and quite frankly maddening. And see that is the important thing about technology, you must be able to understand it fully to know if it helps you and when it doesn’t and sometimes that needs to be a shared decision between knowledge experts and technical staff. Football Centaurs if you will. We aren’t getting a lot of good signs that Gettleman or the Giants ownership are those people. I’m sharing an article because people want to downplay one comment but it demonstrates a dangerous way of thinking given systems that are already proving to be valuable, the Eagles 2017 4th down calls yes there will be reversion to the mean and analytics don't make you right all the time but the point remains the Eagles organization is leveraging information in systems that there is concrete evidence is more advanced than ours. Just because it doesn't work occasionally and yes Pederson is a riverboat gambler, we may not want that, but we absolutely want to put the same tools in Shurmur's hands.
You might say how do you know we don’t also have these systems? Is that better? Is that better that we are in situations where we can call a timeout and increase our win probability, and this is known to someone but this information is not being used? You know what makes Gettleman’s answer to the analytics question where he is mocking people that work on computers even worse? He brings up Jonathan Stewart as an example and how he hasn’t “lost a step” it shows the failings of thinking in absolutes, he signed this guy to a contract that was too rich making the biggest mistake you can analyzing information properly. He’s oversimplifying a problem. Stewart had some increasing probability of “losing a step” every year. The fact that he is an outlier technically only increases his chances of dropping off not decreases. Barkley has some probability of getting injured every year. Barkley has some probability of the hits taking too big of a toll on him for a drop-off every year. To dismiss math as nonsense instead of a tool that can help your decision-making is what is nonsense. Remember the Steelers, the team that hired this guy Karim Kassam they apparently are of the belief that paying one of the best players in the league at RB a long term contract could be a mistake. It could be because they are worried about this drop off, it could be because they are worried about an RB taking too much of their cap will hamper their team construction but whatever it is I promise you analytics are involved, and those analytics are not “nonsense.” These are all calculated risks and someone so dismissive of the value of those calculations is a concerning quality for a leader in today’s world. The problem isn't the confidence in his decision it is his attitude towards the role of mathematics as a beneficial part of that process. I've bee in meetings with people like Gettleman and if he is making fun of them in public he is also likely to mock them in closed doors and undermine the value of their work vs. his. Waze isn’t always right; chess computers aren’t always right, and the coach / GM / owner aren't always right. You make yourself better if you integrate technology pervasively into your decision making, do everything possible to have the best technology and have people that are so well versed in the understanding of both that they know when and when not to use it.
I don’t think Pederson is the one leading the way on the development of analytics. I’d expect it is Howie Roseman which is why I do not put the lack of timeout call on Shurmur at all, we should have systems in place to protect him from stupid moves like that. Teams are moving onto GPS data now so perhaps by the time we can get simple things like expected value right they will already be onto exploiting players moving slower than their average in game or running plays with the highest probability of success given both teams tendencies, down, distance and time left.
I’m not making a mountain our of a molehill here it appears that other teams are landing on the moon and preparing their mars missions and our rockets are blowing up on the ground. And honestly, I’m not sure what is more irresponsible for our ownership here, allowing it to get to this point or hiring a 67-year-old man to fix it without even interviewing front office candidates that might introduce you to these fresh ideas. Spoiler alert. They do not work in Carolina or for ESPN. They work in New England, Philly and Jacksonville. (For final color on Jacksonville I think it’s important to note that the owner’s son is running this program and it was established in 2012, if that isn’t a clear history of organizational buy in from the top that goes way beyond what we are doing, I don’t know what is)
Gettleman is probably right, the technology he has overseen the building of isn't better than him. There are lots of ways to build models that don't work, technology that doesn't function as you'd like it. But that's also my point. If we don't get someone in the door that actually knows what they are doing, including the right frameworks to create data and self-enhancing systems with some real organizational power we are doomed to fall further and further behind.
Preach on brother! Thank you!
Better not see that hack Ranaan run an article on analytics this month.
Pretty spot on. This franchise was sinking due to the incompetency of the Maras and Rozelle saved that sinking ship.
Mara should erect a statue of Rozelle outside of the stadium.
2) I see the other side of it too. I don't think the ownership deserves any vitriol. We aren't some hapless franchise and I've seen two championships that I cherished in my lifetime. That being said, I chose the word irresponsible carefully. I can easily see the allure of a familiar face with past success who sets up software systems and sends people to the Sloan conference as a safe way to stick with your past and move to the future. The mistake they are actively making is not bringing in a great technologist with power to at the very least vet the plan / help hire. And again you might say they did but the evidence does not suggest that their systems have been properly vetted / guided by someone that actually knows what they are doing with respect to math and tech innovation. I once did a pilot for a fortune 500 company and presented our results in a meeting with 20 senior executives, it was a circus. Some were very much in our camp but it came down from the top after we did this initial work for them that they "didn't know if they wanted to be in the predictive analytics business." Well 4 years later they ended up buying a company for 100X what we were asking for to build a similar platform. You can invest now and start reaping the benefits or you can be backed into a corner later but you have to pay the technology piper.
3) I can't stress enough the importance of online learning and needing data with a history of quality predictions before you can hope to have a system of real value. It isn't just the raw data that you need. You need a comprehensive and deep log of people and computer algorithms trying to solve this problem. Probably hundreds of millions if not billions of algorithms and ensembles of algorithms stored in time series which genetic algorithms can draw from. We actually call this "analysis DNA" at my company.
4) I don't make a habit of having enemies on BBI, I do remember prodding The Jake a little in my youth around his exit but he was kind of a jerk. But mrvax, you are really annoying. You come into the thread to basically call what i'm saying bullshit without adding any facts of your own or addressing my points. It's not out of character for you. English Alistar called me a dick indirectly but at least he explained himself. I'm not going to call you any names but honestly just improve the quality of your thoughts or stop talking. Your words are a waste of space.
Ownership needs to be put on notice. Write letters, tell people that you know in the organization. This needs to be fixed now.
YouTube - ( New Window )
Ownership needs to be put on notice. Write letters, tell people that you know in the organization. This needs to be fixed now.
I appreciate your efforts, too. Don't agree entirely with everything - because I do believe there are many moments in sports where the "gut move" pays huge dividens that only people with deep football (or whatever sport) experience can know - but I think you are onto something worth more discussion.
And don't let the BBI bastards grind you down. ;)
In the end, it's just talk and opinion. So don't let it get too deep into your blood stream....
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that means they need to start the process of getting a good technology stack in the door yesterday. Starting with getting expected value calculations like taking timeouts right so we don't leave points on the field. I could code this system in a week with the right data, any good data architect could. Which is why I also said maddening with respect to watching the timeouts not get used in the game last week. I was there in the stands and I almost ripped out my hair out.
Ownership needs to be put on notice. Write letters, tell people that you know in the organization. This needs to be fixed now.
I appreciate your efforts, too. Don't agree entirely with everything - because I do believe there are many moments in sports where the "gut move" pays huge dividens that only people with deep football (or whatever sport) experience can know - but I think you are onto something worth more discussion.
And don't let the BBI bastards grind you down. ;)
In the end, it's just talk and opinion. So don't let it get too deep into your blood stream....
Lol thanks! Don't you worry about me. I've been posting here since I was a teenager. My first thread was one of the classics I've seen repeated over the years that people should be nicer to each other. It's funny, I remember an early interaction with Bill2 who was a great poster that I always looked up to and asked how he managed to stay so measured when dealing with what amounted to crazy/stupid attacks on his points? His response was I don't always. With some more years under my belt I see that more and more. Certain people will insult my intelligence or something of the like and sometimes I can shrug it off and sometimes it just boils my blood. I'm sure as I get older i'll continue to do more shrugging and less boiling. It's not that I have insecurities about my intelligence or thought quality either. It's mostly that words are many times meant to elicit an emotional response and I think part of maturity is sometimes you realize you are experiencing an emotion before you speak and sometimes after, it's all a process and we are all human.
As for what you actually said, I tried to make this point as much as possible but it might have gotten lost in my manifesto. I deeply value those gut feelings in myself and others. And I think confidence is one of the most important things in life. Nothing worse than ignoring your gut and turning out to be right. Over confidence however is dangerous and we always have to check ourselves. That's why I see universal value in predictive probabilities as a reference point. Make sure you have it in front of you and it is quality information from a well engineered and actualized system that you've built, used and improved upon.
To my earlier point about Waze I don't think anyone outside of the company used version 1 but a small team of smart people ultimately honed something that was better than what Google could build. That is the value of giving smart people freedom to operate and create. That is my concern with Gettleman, I'm sure the people managing Google Maps gave their people way more autonomy, resources and a better quality of life than Gettleman gives to his people and Waze still created a better product that Google had to buy. Which is why I question the idea that something could be built under his leadership even if he has hired the right people. Which I don't think he has. And I don't think the right people would even be interested in working for him even for that online clip of him making fun of people typing alone. That is the serious problem I believe we are facing.
I just watched that clip again. Immediately after he says, "Jonathan Stewart is in his 10th year, and he has hardly lost anything."
Fuck me.
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And I don't think the right people would even be interested in working for him even for that online clip of him making fun of people typing alone. That is the serious problem I believe we are facing.
I just watched that clip again. Immediately after he says, "Jonathan Stewart is in his 10th year, and he has hardly lost anything."
Fuck me.
Right on.
I actually mentioned that too in my long post not sure if you saw. It's one of those so sad it is also in a way funny. It's like an ad for why you don't mock analytics. If you are going to act like your analytical abilities are beyond reproach you better be right.
It's just the wrong attitude. And that's the thing, it's an old way of thinking that there are right and wrong answers to complex questions. You can have the wrong approach absolutely but suggesting that you are right before you even see how it plays out is beyond stupid. Let alone the fact that the ripple affects of decisions make that kind of analysis stupid. Even if Barkely gets a career ending injury this year and Darnold goes on to the hall of fame it doesn't mean the decision was right or wrong. It's just one of the many theoretical scenarios that could have happened, have to look at difficult analysis on a quantum level really. All you can do is gather the best possible information you can to make the decision and you sure as hell don't do that by insulting people with computer and math skills.
Mara was there, obviously, when Jints Central was hitting on all cylinders from '84 to '90. He saw the baton handed off from one old school guy - Young - to another old school guy - Accorsi.
When old school Accorsi left, they took a shot on Reese. But at least Reese was in-house and exposed to the "Giants Way".
So what happens when the Reese Era goes up in smoke? Mara can't help but go with his instincts and bring back old school Accorsi to navigate the search. And what does old school Accorsi quickly recommend? Old school Gettleman. I mean, you just can't make it up.
I know I'm likely preaching to the converted here, but it's always easy to point at Gettleman and say THE problem. But he's part of the problem because Mara wanted old school - and he's really THE problem...
You just don't take an undersized RB when you have a fast declining line and a QB that thrives with a good line and is one of the better play action passers in the league.
Honestly there aren't many things you can do that are that stupid and i'm a big BPA guy. It's like the people talking about using a high pick on a WR this year when our line was still in the shape that it's in. There is an argument to be made for most decisions but some ideas are just bad ideas no deep analysis necessary.
It's why friends hire friends in a continuous cycle of staying within the 'network' of who you know.
It takes a lot of nerve to ride into a new job and spit on modern evaluation and say you're here to 'kick ass'. And then when it comes time to make the hard choice, namely at QB, you punt that call down the road and take the player that's easy to predict to be good. Anyone here would have been qualified to draft Saquon Barkley. It's a gut check to get your hands dirty and see the opportunity to draft a potential franchise QB. That kind of a move is hard, and it's supposed to be, and that's why that job pays as much as it does. To make difficult choices.
Like I said I do think Gettleman pulled a con job that was good enough to fool Mara and apparently posters on this site that he had expertise in technology when he just had experience overseeing an implementation. Two different animals.
But it is completely on ownership to not see the growing chasm and start a real effort to catch up.
Like I said I do think Gettleman pulled a con job that was good enough to fool Mara and apparently posters on this site that he had expertise in technology when he just had experience overseeing an implementation. Two different animals.
Gettleman didn't really have to do anything but be himself because, remember, Mara specifically and quickly brought in Accorsi to lead the GM task search. And it's easy to conclude that he's no Analytics vanguard...